Hexanediamine:

Demand slowdown and price regression

In the first half of the year, the price of hexanediamine fell from 80,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to 43,000 yuan at the end of June, a decrease of 46.3%.

Peng Yongfei, manager of the fine chemical industry department of the southern Henan chemical market, said that in the first half of last year, the price of hexanediamine soared by 147.3% due to the suspension of production by the giant, ranking first in the increase. However, this year, due to the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, the slowdown of domestic demand and the expansion of production capacity and other factors, the market price of hexanediamine has come back rationally.

In addition to nylon 66, the downstream area of hexanediamine also has shoemaking industry. In the first half of this year, the trade frictions between China and the United States escalated, and the United States imposed high tariffs on footwear products exported to China, which greatly undermined the normal export momentum of China's footwear industry. Domestic shoe enterprises have to cut production or close down due to reduced profits, which reduces the consumption of hexanediamine market.

"At present, some cities in China have begun to ban disposable plastic products and block foreign garbage. Prohibited disposable plastic products include plastic pipettes, plastic cotton swabs, plastic tableware and plastic balloon sticks produced with hexanediamine as the main raw material. Therefore, China's implementation of the policy of banning disposable plastic products and blocking the import of foreign garbage also indirectly restricts the rapid consumption of hexanediamine in China, which is another reason why prices fell in the first half of the year. Liu Jun, manager of chemical products division of Zhongyuan Logistics Trading Company, said. At the same time, in the first half of the year, the high-pressure policy of national environmental protection was gradually exerted. Many enterprises in the downstream industries of hexamethylene diamine, such as paper-making and rubber, were ordered to stop production and rectify because of the lack of safety and environmental protection, which also reduced the demand for hexamethylene diamine.

In addition, some domestic high-tech chemical technology enterprises are actively developing new chemical material substitutes for synthetic nylon 66, nylon 610 resin and various fibre fabrics and plastics products made from hexamethylenediamine, which greatly reduces the actual demand for hexamethylenediamine products in China. Therefore, since the first half of the year, the domestic hexanediamine market has shown a balance between supply and demand, and price regression is also reasonable.

Methyl ester:

Capacity Growth Price Bottom

In the first half of the year, the price of methyl methacrylate (methyl methacrylate) dropped from a high of 16,000 yuan to 11,000 yuan at the end of June, a drop of 31.3%. The price of methyl methacrylate was at a new low in recent three years.

Throughout the first half of the year, the price of methyl ester Market dropped by 6.95% from the end of last year in January to February; the overall market remained stable in March to April, with prices rising slightly; in May, the methyl ester Market changed dramatically and prices fell by 8.87% compared with April; in June, the decline continued to expand, with a 10% drop in the ring ratio. Up. Overall, the average domestic methyl ester price in the first half of the year was 13.9 million yuan, down 34.95% from the same period in 2018.

Weng Huanhuan, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that the main culprit of the sharp decline in methyl ester Market was the explosive growth of production capacity, which was hampered by the poor development environment of the terminal industry and the breakdown of the balance between supply and demand in the market.

From the domestic point of view, the total production capacity of methyl ester in China is 1024,000 tons per year. In 2019, with the production of 90,000 tons/year in Sirbang, Jiangsu and 50,000 tons/year in Wanda Hongxu, the total production capacity will reach 1.16 million tons/year. The production capacity will continue to grow, with a growth rate of 30.5%. Overseas, the production capacity of the methyl ester plant of LG in Lishui is expected to increase by 80,000 tons/year, reaching 260,000 tons/year, while Korea still enjoys excellent performance. The preferential import tax rate also aggravates the pressure of production and marketing in the domestic market.

On the downstream side, the overall demand for methyl ester is weak due to the poor macroeconomic environment and trade frictions between China and the United States. PMMA sheet and particle industry overall start-up load rate is low, downstream terminal positivity has been poor, the market is difficult to have bright spots; macromolecule additives industry overall start-up load also maintained low operation, single purchase to maintain just demand, difficult to release; coating industry by environmental protection and the real estate downturn, the overall market The atmosphere is light and trading is not smooth.

In addition, due to the global excess supply of methyl ester and the insipid demand side, the price of methyl ester abroad has been low, so import sources rely on cost advantages to inflow and impact the domestic market. In May, China imported 11,100 tons of methyl ester, which is expected to remain high in June, putting pressure on the domestic market and driving down the price of methyl ester.

Soda:

Lower demand shock

Looking back at the domestic caustic soda market, the first half of the year showed a continuous fluctuation and downward consolidation trend, from 4,000 yuan in early January to 2,900 yuan at the end of June, a decline of 28%, with the largest amplitude of 51%.

"The sustained decline in the domestic caustic soda market is mainly due to weak demand. At the same time, the problem of excess domestic production capacity has not been improved, and the macro environment has also led to a decline in export volume." Henan Hengtong Chemical Group General Manager Assistant Wang Xiaodang analysis said.

After the Spring Festival, the demand market of caustic soda downstream is weak as a whole. The average starting rate of main downstream alumina enterprises is about 70%, and the enthusiasm of purchasing caustic soda is poor. At the same time, due to environmental factors, such as the red mud leak of Shanxi alumina, the government asked the alumina plant in the area to stop production, involving 6.6 million tons of production capacity, which caused a significant decline in the demand for caustic soda. Other downstream products also failed to meet construction expectations due to unexpected events such as environmental protection and safety. For example, after the "3.21" major explosion accident, there are still a large number of downstream chemical enterprises closed down, which inhibits the stability of caustic soda market.

According to Li Bing, a trader in Henan Province, caustic soda is an overcapacity industry. Because of the relatively good situation of PVC downstream of liquid chlorine and the relatively high price of liquid chlorine in the first half of the year, in order to ensure supply, the start-up rate of chlor-alkali enterprises is maintained at 78%-80%. As a result, the supply of caustic soda is relatively sufficient and the stock ratio is slightly higher. However, traders are not confident enough about the future market of caustic soda, and they are more likely to purchase goods on demand. Although there was a small rebound in June due to overhaul, it has not fundamentally changed the current situation of excess supply in the caustic soda market.

According to incomplete statistics, the cumulative output of caustic soda from January to June was about 17.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the same period last year.

In addition, trade frictions between China and the United States have led to a reduction in exports of papermaking, textile and other industries downstream of caustic soda, a decline in the start-up rate of enterprises, and a reduction in the purchase of raw caustic soda. According to incomplete statistics, the average start-up rate of papermaking and textile enterprises decreased by 10%-15% in the first half of the year.

At the same time, under the influence of Sino-US trade frictions, the direct export volume of caustic soda also declined significantly. According to statistics from Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Network, the export volume of caustic soda in China was 187,700 tons from January to May, a decrease of 44.88% compared with the same period last year. The decline in export volume also brought pressure to the domestic caustic soda market.

Key word

Three products in the mid-market of chemical industry

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China Petroleum and Chemical Network 2019-07-09 10:32

In the first half of this year, 76% of 160 chemical products fell, especially hexamethylene diamine, methyl methacrylate and caustic soda. The market declined by 46.3%, 31.3% and 28% respectively, ranking the top three.

Hexanediamine:

Demand slowdown and price regression

In the first half of the year, the price of hexanediamine fell from 80,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to 43,000 yuan at the end of June, a decrease of 46.3%.

Peng Yongfei, manager of the fine chemical industry department of the southern Henan chemical market, said that in the first half of last year, the price of hexanediamine soared by 147.3% due to the suspension of production by the giant, ranking first in the increase. However, this year, due to the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, the slowdown of domestic demand and the expansion of production capacity and other factors, the market price of hexanediamine has come back rationally.

In addition to nylon 66, the downstream area of hexanediamine also has shoemaking industry. In the first half of this year, the trade frictions between China and the United States escalated, and the United States imposed high tariffs on footwear products exported to China, which greatly undermined the normal export momentum of China's footwear industry. Domestic shoe enterprises have to cut production or close down due to reduced profits, which reduces the consumption of hexanediamine market.

"At present, some cities in China have begun to ban disposable plastic products and block foreign garbage. Prohibited disposable plastic products include plastic pipettes, plastic cotton swabs, plastic tableware and plastic balloon sticks produced with hexanediamine as the main raw material. Therefore, China's implementation of the policy of banning disposable plastic products and blocking the import of foreign garbage also indirectly restricts the rapid consumption of hexanediamine in China, which is another reason why prices fell in the first half of the year. Liu Jun, manager of chemical products division of Zhongyuan Logistics Trading Company, said. At the same time, in the first half of the year, the high-pressure policy of national environmental protection was gradually exerted. Many enterprises in the downstream industries of hexamethylene diamine, such as paper-making and rubber, were ordered to stop production and rectify because of the lack of safety and environmental protection, which also reduced the demand for hexamethylene diamine.

In addition, some domestic high-tech chemical technology enterprises are actively developing new chemical material substitutes for synthetic nylon 66, nylon 610 resin and various fibre fabrics and plastics products made from hexamethylenediamine, which greatly reduces the actual demand for hexamethylenediamine products in China. Therefore, since the first half of the year, the domestic hexanediamine market has shown a balance between supply and demand, and price regression is also reasonable.

Methyl ester:

Capacity Growth Price Bottom

In the first half of the year, the price of methyl methacrylate (methyl methacrylate) dropped from a high of 16,000 yuan to 11,000 yuan at the end of June, a drop of 31.3%. The price of methyl methacrylate was at a new low in recent three years.

Throughout the first half of the year, the price of methyl ester Market dropped by 6.95% from the end of last year in January to February; the overall market remained stable in March to April, with prices rising slightly; in May, the methyl ester Market changed dramatically and prices fell by 8.87% compared with April; in June, the decline continued to expand, with a 10% drop in the ring ratio. Up. Overall, the average domestic methyl ester price in the first half of the year was 13.9 million yuan, down 34.95% from the same period in 2018.

Weng Huanhuan, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, said that the main culprit of the sharp decline in methyl ester Market was the explosive growth of production capacity, which was hampered by the poor development environment of the terminal industry and the breakdown of the balance between supply and demand in the market.

From the domestic point of view, the total production capacity of methyl ester in China is 1024,000 tons per year. In 2019, with the production of 90,000 tons/year in Sirbang, Jiangsu and 50,000 tons/year in Wanda Hongxu, the total production capacity will reach 1.16 million tons/year. The production capacity will continue to grow, with a growth rate of 30.5%. Overseas, the production capacity of the methyl ester plant of LG in Lishui is expected to increase by 80,000 tons/year, reaching 260,000 tons/year, while Korea still enjoys excellent performance. The preferential import tax rate also aggravates the pressure of production and marketing in the domestic market.

On the downstream side, the overall demand for methyl ester is weak due to the poor macroeconomic environment and trade frictions between China and the United States. PMMA sheet and particle industry overall start-up load rate is low, downstream terminal positivity has been poor, the market is difficult to have bright spots; macromolecule additives industry overall start-up load also maintained low operation, single purchase to maintain just demand, difficult to release; coating industry by environmental protection and the real estate downturn, the overall market The atmosphere is light and trading is not smooth.

In addition, due to the global excess supply of methyl ester and the insipid demand side, the price of methyl ester abroad has been low, so import sources rely on cost advantages to inflow and impact the domestic market. In May, China imported 11,100 tons of methyl ester, which is expected to remain high in June, putting pressure on the domestic market and driving down the price of methyl ester.

Soda:

Lower demand shock

Looking back at the domestic caustic soda market, the first half of the year showed a continuous fluctuation and downward consolidation trend, from 4,000 yuan in early January to 2,900 yuan at the end of June, a decline of 28%, with the largest amplitude of 51%.

"The sustained decline in the domestic caustic soda market is mainly due to weak demand. At the same time, the problem of excess domestic production capacity has not been improved, and the macro environment has also led to a decline in export volume." Henan Hengtong Chemical Group General Manager Assistant Wang Xiaodang analysis said.

After the Spring Festival, the demand market of caustic soda downstream is weak as a whole. The average starting rate of main downstream alumina enterprises is about 70%, and the enthusiasm of purchasing caustic soda is poor. At the same time, due to environmental factors, such as the red mud leak of Shanxi alumina, the government asked the alumina plant in the area to stop production, involving 6.6 million tons of production capacity, which caused a significant decline in the demand for caustic soda. Other downstream products also failed to meet construction expectations due to unexpected events such as environmental protection and safety. For example, after the "3.21" major explosion accident, there are still a large number of downstream chemical enterprises closed down, which inhibits the stability of caustic soda market.

According to Li Bing, a trader in Henan Province, caustic soda is an overcapacity industry. Because of the relatively good situation of PVC downstream of liquid chlorine and the relatively high price of liquid chlorine in the first half of the year, in order to ensure supply, the start-up rate of chlor-alkali enterprises is maintained at 78%-80%. As a result, the supply of caustic soda is relatively sufficient and the stock ratio is slightly higher. However, traders are not confident enough about the future market of caustic soda, and they are more likely to purchase goods on demand. Although there was a small rebound in June due to overhaul, it has not fundamentally changed the current situation of excess supply in the caustic soda market.

According to incomplete statistics, the cumulative output of caustic soda from January to June was about 17.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the same period last year.

In addition, trade frictions between China and the United States have led to a reduction in exports of papermaking, textile and other industries downstream of caustic soda, a decline in the start-up rate of enterprises, and a reduction in the purchase of raw caustic soda. According to incomplete statistics, the average start-up rate of papermaking and textile enterprises decreased by 10%-15% in the first half of the year.

At the same time, under the influence of Sino-US trade frictions, the direct export volume of caustic soda also declined significantly. According to statistics from Henan Petroleum and Chemical Industry Network, the export volume of caustic soda in China was 187,700 tons from January to May, a decrease of 44.88% compared with the same period last year. The decline in export volume also brought pressure to the domestic caustic soda market.